How economic uncertainty reshapes population health in emerging markets.

Over the past half century, life expectancy in the Global South has made remarkable progress. According to World Health Organization data, average global life expectancy at birth was 52.58 years in 1960 and had risen to 72.74 years by 2019; emerging markets and developing economies contributed approximately 25 years of that increase in per capita life expectancy. This achievement stems mainly from declines in child mortality and the control of infectious diseases. However, a long-neglected issue has come to the surface: how does economic uncertainty—an inherent feature of market economies—affect population health in these countries? A recent study covering 103 emerging markets and developing economies from 1995 to 2019 has, for the first time, systematically revealed the complex relationship between the two.

Economic Uncertainty: The Invisible Health Variable

Traditional macroeconomics focuses on the impact of variables such as GDP, inflation, and employment on health, but economic uncertainty—stemming from policy volatility, external shocks, financial turmoil, and other factors—is often overlooked. Since the turn of this century, global crises have occurred frequently: the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic beginning in late 2019 both drove the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) and the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (GEPU) to historic highs. At the same time, population health suffered a dual blow, both direct and indirect.

In theory, the impact of economic uncertainty on health has two sides. On the one hand, rising uncertainty increases household income volatility, triggers psychological problems such as anxiety and depression, and may prompt individuals to develop unhealthy habits, such as alcohol abuse and smoking. On the other hand, uncertainty is accompanied by declines in investment and industrial output, which may reduce industrial accidents and pollution emissions, thereby producing unexpected benefits for health. In addition, households and governments may cut medical spending during periods of uncertainty, which also harms health. Thus, the net effect of economic uncertainty on population health is an empirical question.

Empirical Findings: Negligible in the Short Run, a Puzzle in the Long Run

Using a Bayesian panel vector autoregression (BPVAR) model, the researchers found that, for the full sample, the immediate impact of rising economic uncertainty on health is minimal, but in the long run it may unexpectedly extend life expectancy and reduce overall mortality. This finding seems contradictory, but it actually reveals a structural adjustment mechanism: when uncertainty continues to rise, the contraction of economic activity may reduce industrial accidents and pollution exposure, while social coping mechanisms may also gradually adapt.

More important is heterogeneity. The study finds that this "health-promoting effect" is concentrated mainly in emerging markets, low-income countries, and upper-middle-income countries. In particular, in upper-middle-income countries, rising economic uncertainty is even accompanied by a decline in suicide rates, which may reflect a certain reshaping of social cohesion during economic downturns. However, in high-income and lower-middle-income countries, rising uncertainty may instead lead to higher child mortality. This reminds us that countries at different stages of development have markedly different relationships between economic uncertainty and health.

The Global South: A Triple Game of Health Insurance, Growth, and PollutionAmong all factors, economic growth and healthcare spending have proven to be the most powerful levers for improving population health. Health gains from healthcare spending are particularly significant in low- and middle-income countries, while the effect of economic growth in low-income countries is short-lived and limited. Notably, in high-income countries, economic growth is instead associated with worsening health, which may be related to lifestyle-related diseases.

The negative impact of environmental pollution on health is particularly pronounced in emerging markets and middle-income countries. This is not surprising, as these countries are in the midst of rapid industrialization and urbanization, where extensive development often comes at the expense of the environment. Financial development and globalization, on the other hand, make positive contributions to health, but this effect is more evident outside high-income countries—perhaps because financial deepening and open trade can bring better healthcare coverage and information flow.

Policy Implications: Building Health Resilience in an Era of Uncertainty

For emerging markets in the Global South, this study offers several important implications. First, macroeconomic stability itself is health policy. Reducing economic policy uncertainty and avoiding frequent policy reversals can help protect population health. Second, investment in healthcare infrastructure must be increased, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Third, while pursuing economic growth, environmental governance cannot be neglected—the harm of pollution to health will offset the dividends of growth. Fourth, financial development and globalization should not be blindly rejected; the key lies in properly managing the risks of opening up.

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Global South once again stands at the forefront of economic uncertainty. As the study shows, health is not only an output of the economy but also an input to it. A healthy population structure is the foundation of long-term economic growth. And in the face of potentially more frequent global shocks in the future, emerging markets need to establish more systematic linkage mechanisms between economic policy and public health.